Week 0 reminds me of the complimentary water before the appetizer of the Thursday night games arrives. With the main course coming with a stellar Week 1 next week, this Saturday gives us four games.
In the days leading up to toe meeting leather feel free to take a listen to our projections for the upcoming season. As always, you’ll find those by clicking on The Football tab.
We’ve reached the end. This is the last week of the regular season and when the bulk of the instate rivalries are played. The helmets lined up across from one another this week exemplify everything there is about family gatherings and fellowship. Or maybe not.
The bitterness of the Egg Bowl kicks off the excitement. While Miss St should win, Ole Miss has been getting solid play at the QB position. Only the die hard fans will watch FSU play Florida. The Noles should have the edge, but who knows this year? A sneaky good match up will be Virginia and Virginia Tech. Louisville and Kentucky go at it again and I wonder if the Cats can slow down Lamar Jackson. The reigning Heisman winner is having an amazing season that very few seem to be paying attention to since the rest of the team is down. Indiana at Purdue could provide some sneaky fireworks as well with the game picked with just a FG difference. Battles in Tennessee, North Carolina and Nevada will be for pure bragging rights while Fresno St and Boise St will meet in back to back weeks. It’s next week that counts.
Now onto those crazy instate games that mean everything (and one border war). The Apple Cup decides the PAC12 North. Washington can play the spoiler and send Stanford to the game against USC. I’m putting Clemson on upset alert at South Carolina. Ohio State travels north to take on Michigan. While the B1G title game is set, this is a must win for the Buckeyes if they want to sneak into the playoffs in case of chaos. Same for Georgia going to Tech. They don’t need chaos, but they have to win. USF and UCF battle for the middle of Florida and the winner takes on Memphis for the chance to go to a New Years Six bowl. UCF just looks too strong. Alabama travels to the Plains to meet Auburn to decide the SEC West. It will be a classic.
I took a bath last week and went 1-4 in the Vegas 5. Thank you LSU for saving me. I go into the last week of the regular season at 34-24-2. Against The Spread in Top 25/SEC I sit at 157-112.
The Vegas 5 this week is very tricky. Rivalries and finales are tough to predict as this is the week that some guys play for the last time ever. I’ll take Pitt (+13.5) as they host Miami. The Canes play dangerously at times. South Carolina (+14) will keep close when Clemson visits. I want the Over (47.5) in the Apple Cup when Washington and Washington St tangle. I’m going Under (74.5) when Arizona meets Arizona St. That’s a lot of points in a rivalry game. And Oregon (-25) covers when they host Oregon St in the Civil War.
Who are you taking?
I know it’s not a bye week for everyone, but it is for my team. I was there for the 100th edition of the Third Saturday in October and thoroughly enjoyed watching Alabama dismantle Tennessee.
Lots of pundits and sites are quick to remove teams from playoff contention after a single loss. A one loss Power 5 team that wins its championship game has a solid chance to go to the last four. I doubt two loss teams have much of a chance unless chaos ensues. I’m not ready to eliminate a conference or contender just yet, but USC, Auburn, LSU, Michigan, and all the Group of 5 are likely out. But, that doesn’t mean their seasons are over. Conference titles are still to be had and a ring is a ring.
Favorites held serve for the most part last week. The lack of upsets points to this weekend being a little trickier for those expected to win. A lot of ranked teams travel this weekend. Oklahoma St and Washington St go to West Virginia and Arizona respectively. I’m willing to put both on upset alert. In fact, their in-state counterparts, Oklahoma and Washington, have home games they had best bring their A game for (Texas Tech, UCLA). The Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party is this week. I’ve been to the Gator Bowl and can attest to the party atmosphere for that particular geographical location. NC St @ Notre Dame and Penn St @ Ohio St will be classics. I like both home teams to win close games. The game I have the most interest in this week is Mississippi St at Texas A&M. This has the potential to be the game of the week and is completely under the radar.
I went 4-1 again last week in the Vegas 5. I now sit at 23-16-1. As for Top 25/SEC Against The Spread, I’m a healthy 111-68.
I’m going with Georgia Tech (+14) to make it a game against Clemson. Clemson should win with either QB, but even with the extra week the triple option is tough to defend. Troy (-25.5) is back on track while Georgia Southern has jumped theirs. I like the Over (64.5) in the Washington St at Arizona game. The Pirate will score and Big Man Tate will, too. Virginia (+3) at Pitt. The Cavaliers are unfazed by road games after winning on the smurf turf earlier this season. Lastly, Rutgers (+24) at Michigan. Michigan wins, but the Scarlet Knights are much improved.
Welcome to my favorite week of the year. This is the week when Alabama squares off against Tennessee. In college football an elevated level of excitement hits when you see certain helmets lined up across from one another. Tradition is what this great sport is all about. That crispness in the air and the changing of the leaves means we’ve reached the height of the season.
Upsets abound last week. Winning each week has proven extraordinarily difficult throughout the history of football. Declaring teams out of contention after a single loss is an overreaction. It’s too early to sort out the playoff picture. Every team has tough tests ahead and each has the opportunity to prove themselves. Those with two losses need considerable help. Those with a single loss have likely lost their safety net. And, it’s always good to be undefeated.
In addition to my favorite game many other great match ups litter the week. USC at Notre Dame is another of those classic match ups that help define all that is great with this sport. Lots of folks are high on the Irish, but I think USC might sneak out of South Bend with this one. Michigan goes to Happy Valley to face Penn State and their White Out. I give the Wolverines little chance. The recently good LSU team travels to their traditional hate week against Ole Miss. If you don’t know how intense this one is, then tune in.
There I was feeling sorry for myself and my Vegas 5 record and then, boom. Last week I went 4-1 and only lost by half a point. That brings my year to 19-15-1. I moved to 100-61 Against The Spread for Top 25 and SEC match ups. That’s 62% for those keeping score.
This week the Vegas 5 starts with Syracuse (+16.5) at Miami. The Orange would be expected to have a letdown after that huge win, but I see them at least keeping it close if not taking it outright. I’ll take the Oregon Ducks (+6.5) at UCLA. Much like their uniforms, you never know which Oregon team will show, but you have a pretty good idea which Bruin D will be there. I want the Over (62) in the Arizona at Cal game. If you haven’t watched Arizona’s QB, you’re missing out. I’ll take Kansas St (+14) against Oklahoma. Something about Bill Snyder Family Field makes me think the Wildcats will show up to play. And lastly, Virginia Tech (-21) to cover against UNC. The Tar Heels just aren’t that good this year.
You picking any this week?
Sometimes in football you have one of those weeks. I imagine the House did very well in Week 4, no one I know did well at all. No podcast again this week, but there will be one next week to wrap up the first month.
Perhaps the funniest thing from the weekend was the Oklahoma St OL getting a sack on his own QB. I wager he had a rough film session on Monday. I wasn’t overly surprised by many of the outcomes, just how close they were (or were not). That said, I watched a portion of the NC St/FSU game. While FSU still has OL woes, the officiating in that game was wildly inconsistent and that piled on the rust factor for FSU. I picked TCU to keep it close, but wow they looked good. My preseason pick of them playing in the Big 12 game looks pretty good right now.
So, you want Bama? Asking for a friend.
I was mistaken on my year last week. UK, Vandy, and Miss St were all 3-0 in 1911. Now, of course they are all 3-1. UK had an epic meltdown and they may want to switch to the SEC West now.
I moved to 11-8-1 for the year with my Vegas 5 and took an absolute beating Against The Spread with Top 25 and SEC games. I went 11-13 to move to 61-35 on the year.
This week the Vegas 5 starts with Iowa (+3.5) against Michigan St. Do they watch the games in the desert? Fresno St (-10) against a suspect Nevada team. SMU (-17) will be all over UConn. UGA is for real, I’ll take Georgia (-7.5) over Tennessee. And lastly, Cal (+13.5) at Oregon.
Who do you have?
A rarity happened last weekend. Alabama played a home game and I was on my couch. But, that gave me the opportunity to watch a lot of football. Clemson was impressive controlling Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately for last year’s Heisman winner, he does not have much of a supporting class. Texas played USC much closer than I anticipated. San Diego St confirmed my faith in them and I begin to wonder if they will get the Non 5 invite to the big bowls. That would create an interesting waiting game for me and the Las Vegas Bowl I attend each season. UCLA fell on its face in Memphis. I don’t buy the body clock argument. Memphis beat them, straight up. UCLA has no D and they seem more suited to the Big 12.
The SEC proved once again that it may be Bama and the rest. Miss St embarrassed LSU. I read somewhere an angry LSU fan asking why they would fire the coach with the best win percentage in LSU history in order to hire the coach with the worst winning percentage in Ole Miss history. Vandy made the conference proud by beating Kansas St. In doing so, The ‘Dores got their first win over a ranked non-conference opponent since Harry Truman was in office. Auburn not only struggled against Mercer, a team that restarted its football program five years ago, they lost their backup QB (kicked off team) and one of its top recruits from a couple of seasons ago (transferring). Methinks there’s trouble on the Plains. For the first time since 1906, Kentucky, Vandy, and Miss St are all 3-0.
I went 3-2 in my Vegas 5 last week bringing my season total to 8-6-1. I moved to 50-22 in Top 25 and SEC games.
This week, I anticipate some great games. Conference play is in full swing for most everyone. For starters, giving 28 points is never that smart a play. That being said, I’ll take Oklahoma (-27.5) over Baylor. The Bears and the karma tour continues. Stanford will not lose three in a row. Therefore, I take Stanford (-7) over UCLA. Staying out West, Give me Cal (+17) over USC. USC wins, but Cal keeps it close. I also want Old Dominion (+27.5) against Virginia Tech. Lastly, Iowa (+12.5) against Penn St. And how cool is their new 1st Quarter tradition of waving to the patients of the children’s hospital next to the stadium?
Happy betting and expect the podcast to return next week.
No podcast this week as Irma has disrupted the standard operating procedures.
Two games into a season does not give enough information to get a good handle on who is truly great and who is a house of cards. Of course, film doesn’t lie and there are some very good and very bad teams out there.
The big game of Week 2 was Oklahoma over Ohio St. Consider the last four games for the Buckeyes, a controversial win over Michigan, a decisive loss to Clemson, a comeback over Indiana once the Hoosiers ran out of gas, and now the collapse of the second half to the Sooners. Before I give too much credit to the Sooners (though credit is due), perhaps we have all overestimated Ohio St.
Georgia pulled out a big win on the road against Notre Dame. I think the biggest upset was the crowd was 40% Bulldog. USC stomped Stanford and Clemson suffocated Auburn in the rest of the big-time match ups.
Week 3 gives up some conference match ups but little in the way of national marquee action. Clemson and Louisville is the biggest game of the week. I think we will learn if Clemson is a playoff team this weekend. Louisville relies heavily on great QB play from Lamar Jackson and he deserves the hype. I like Clemson here, but in Vegas, I’d leave it alone. Tennessee travels to the Swamp to meet the Gators. Florida has deficiencies on offense and the Vols on D. It’s a coin flip for me, but I give Tennessee the edge.
My picks last week went 2-3 giving me a 5-4-1 season record. I’ve also been picking each top 25 and SEC game outside this blog (a lot to report on individually). My current record against the spread there is 34-14.
This week my five picks if I were in Vegas again avoid many of the bigger games. I am sold on San Diego St. I know Stanford is my pick in the PAC12 North, and I’m currently ok there, but I see a close game. I’ll take San Diego St (+9.5)
I watched a much-improved Fresno St squad in person. Coach Tedford has brought a solid scheme and they have a legit NFL LB on the team. I’ll take Fresno St (+33) against Washington. The Huskies should win handily, but that’s a lot of points.
South Carolina (-6.5) is my pick over Kentucky. Oklahoma St (-13.5) over Pitt. Boston College (+13.5) against Notre Dame.
Week 0 is in the books and college football is here. Nothing surprising happened. Stanford rolled, Hawaii struggled on the east coast, and Colorado St showed why the solid teams in the Group of 5 are better than the bottom teams of the Power 5.
So, it’s game week! I’ll have a rooting interest in the Bama v FSU, of course, but from a betting perspective I’d stay away. But that doesn’t mean I don’t see some games of interest that our friends in the desert might offer something worth playing.
Let me preface this by saying Auburn is a team that can make a legitimate run at titles, but favored over Georgia Southern by 34? I don’t see them covering against a solid Sun Belt team that gives most everyone fits.
Michigan is replacing an awful lot from last year. Despite the immense potential of those players and the fact that numerous Gators are suspended, I’m taking Florida straight up. Those not as bold as me are welcome to look at the spread which favors Michigan by 3 ½.
Quick hits: I like Maryland (+18) and the points against Texas, South Alabama (+24) against Mississippi, and Texas A&M (+3 ½) against UCLA.
Who are your picks this week?
The Mat Hudson 