Monthly Archives: September 2021

Upsets?

For those who listened to the preseason show, you know that I said that this is the year Clemson comes back to the pack. You can sign all the 5 Star players you want, but you still have to coach them up and give them a scheme that puts them in the right position to win. The Tiger D is fine, the O is truly offensive. Oklahoma surprisingly can’t move the ball on O either. But is it just a matter of time or is it a sign of things to come? Are we witnessing a changing of the guard on top teams and playoff contenders? Notre Dame struggled more than the score indicated and Fresno St had a hiccup post their UCLA upset. UNC is all but out of the running in the Coastal and Iowa St is now playing catch up as well. I will not even comment on the officiating in a certain SEC game.

Happy time for the Hogs! Arkansas is close to calling themselves the Texas state champs, except UTSA is not on their schedule. Visiting UGA, however is a dog of a different color. The question will be how healthy is JT Daniel and how the crowd will impact Arkansas. Ole Miss visits Alabama in what could be the track meet of the weekend. I’m staying away from action on the game, but I think the Rebels may stop the Tide. Cincinnati can start booking their playoff hotel rooms with a win of Notre Dame. Meanwhile, an inexplicably still ranked Clemson battles BC in the return match of a great game from last season. Even the Big 12 has a ranked match up when Baylor travels to Oklahoma St.

Last week I went 3-2. The hook got me again in one game, but I did hit my Teaser. 14-8 so far and looking for more. I have a bonus pick for Friday night for those looking for an early start, Maryland (+3.5) against Iowa. I’m going points heavy this week. I take Boston College (+15.5) against Clemson, Rutgers (+15) when they host Ohio St, and Arkansas (+18.5) at UGA. I lay the point with Missouri (-3) against Tennessee and go with the Under (50.5) when Northwestern travels to Nebraska. And of course, I grabbed a Parlay and a Teaser on these as well. I made no NFL bets for Sunday, but did have Dallas and covered on Monday night.

Good luck and happy betting.

Struggles

Lots of favorites played tighter than expected games. Which is the real Nebraska? The team that played Oklahoma deep into the game or the one that fumbled through the Illinois game? Better question: what is the real Oklahoma? My preseason pick to take it all has not looked elite. But, what team has? The best win of the season so far may be the Oregon win at Ohio St. Or is it the Alabama victory at the Swamp against a better than anticipated Florida? Clemson’s defense has yet to allow a TD, but their offense has not really scored many themselves. Better goal line execution would have seen GT take the Tigers out of national contention. Tulsa played Ohio St closer than the final score. So, should we approach this as moving closer to parity or that the “elite” teams are not as elite as advertise? The answer is that we have no idea who is truly separating themselves three weeks into the season. This is why polls should not exist before the first week of October.

This week has Notre Dame playing Wisconsin in Chicago. Both teams are unknown in my opinion. Short of one team dominating the other, I think they jury will still be out on them. Arkansas meets aTm in Dallas for their annual Jerry World game. This should be a game to watch. While those are the only rank on rank games, several ranked teams need to be wary of the upset. That leads right into the picks for the week.

Last week I went 4-1 and move to 11-6 on the season on Straight bets. Unfortunately, and combination of missed FGs and head scratching offense led to the Under in the Neb @ OK game. Winning the games was nice, hitting the Parlay would have been the icing. I feel less confident about the games coming up but have hope for success. I am going with the Over (+64) in the Battle for the Iron Skillet between SMU and TCU. I like the Under (-44.5) when Colorado St visits Iowa. I’m laying the points with Michigan St (-5) against Nebraska. I am taking the points with both Mississippi St (+2.5) when they host LSU and NC State (+10) when they welcome Clemson. I also took these with a Parlay and a Teaser.

I missed an NFL Parlay when KC fumbled, but otherwise had a good weekend.

Reality

So much to digest from Week 2. Texas is most certainly not back and perhaps regretting that move to the SEC a little. Ohio St was exposed as a good, not great team. But, the season is young for the Buckeyes and they are not out of it yet. USC finally makes the long overdue change and Saban gets to tell his team he was right all week in practice. The best thing about the weekend was the Miami fans saving the cat.

This week sees the first real competition for several teams as either conference play opens or squads step out of conference for big match ups. Auburn plays on the road at a Big 10 school for the first time as a member of the SEC. (last trip in 1931) Alabama at Florida highlights the SEC slate of games and I’m sure the Swamp will be wild. Nebraska goes to Oklahoma in what was once a great rivalry. Unfortunately, as you’ve heard me mention on the preseason shows, the Big 12 destroyed that rivalry in the 1990s.

I was able to watch from the couch as I lost by a hook again and came oh so close on my teaser as well. The Over hit by a point. I move to 7-5 on my Straight picks. I have yet to hit a Parlay or Teaser, but that just means I’m due (said every gambler ever). This week I am taking two Money Line plays. I have Penn St and UTSA beating Auburn and MTSU respectively. I also have two Over plays with Alabama @ Florida (+58) and Nebraska @ Oklahoma (+61.5). The last of the week is Michigan St (+6.5) at Miami. I surprisingly went with mostly marquee matchups this week. I also have a Teaser in play, but we shall see.

I am up for the season so far and the sportsbook just comped me an NFL jersey of my choice. Unfortunately, none of the throwbacks I wanted were available in my size, so I went with #71 Jedrick Wills Jr, LT Cleveland Browns. What action do you have this weekend and what jersey would you have selected?

Overreaction

It’s easy to overact with such a small sample size. One game cannot make a season, but it can sure break it. So, after week one let’s pump those brakes and patiently watch a little more football before we declare certainties that may or may not exist. Pac 12 North and ACC had horrendous starts to the season. Florida St showed a lot of heart against Notre Dame. And how great was the McKenzie Milton story?

My first trip to the Mercedes Benz Dome in Atlanta was a success. Great facility where it does not look like there’s a bad seat in the house. However, the bathrooms on the 200 level are a bit small. Alabama played a great first half of football before falling victim to scoreboard watching. We’ll see how that plays out over the year. It does not appear that Miami is going to let Bama beat them twice, but App St will be ready to play Saturday.

Thursday saw me lose to the hook. Minnesota gave Ohio St all it could handle, but once Ibrahim went down with injury the game changed. Texas surprised me against a very strong Louisiana team. I felt that game would be much closer. The Pirate made me sweat a bit, but Miss St and La Tech finally scored enough points to make me happy. UGA handled Clemson. I expected the outright win, but who says no to points? Funny thing is that all the analysts I heard talking about the game talked how great it was and such. There were no offensive touchdowns and 13 points scored. The LSU @ Bama game in 2011 also had no offensive touchdowns, but 15 points scored. Those same analysts talked about how boring that game was, yet both defenses were sideline to sideline with NFL players. Let’s see if that’s the case with UGA v Clemson. I think there is NFL talent for both on that side of the ball, it is nowhere near what we saw in 2011.

I’m sitting at 4-3 in straight picks on the season as I snuck in a bet on the Monday night game. I took Ole Miss and lay the 10 points. This week in college my straight bets are Arkansas +7 as they host Texas, Under in both Missouri at UK (56) and Iowa at Iowa St (46). I have Oregon +14.5 at Ohio St and Northern Illinois +6.5 as they host Wyoming. I grabbed a 5 Leg Teaser on these also. So I get an extra 6 points for each on the parlay for a lower payout. I also took a 4 Leg Parlay with each team on the money line: ND over Toledo, TCU over Cal, North Illinois over Wyoming, and Temple over Akron.

For the NFL this week I went with the Over (51.5) in the Dallas at Tampa game and Green Bay -4 at New Orleans (game played in Jacksonville). And a 6 Leg Parlay each game on the Money Line: Titans, Packers, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Bucs.