All Good Things

One might think this season has brought chaos so far. I would argue that it has brought normality. Losses by Alabama and Ohio St have hardly removed them form CFP dreams. Clemson falling was predicted on the Preseason show, so I am not surprised there. Since I had Cincinnati in the playoffs, that too seems to be in form. The impact of a rowdy, packed house cannot be understated. Nor can the time it takes for a team to gel. We are still only halfway home with lots left to play out.

This weekend has some rather large SEC matchups. UK visiting UGA is going to be more important than the Cocktail Party this year. Winner takes a commanding lead in the East. I think the Dawgs are just too strong there. Bama travels to Clanga, excuse me, Miss St, to deal with Cowbell Nation. It’s a tough place to bounce back at and those Dogs could be undefeated if for better officiating. Arkansas hosts Auburn and LSU hosts Florida in important pecking order games. Texas welcomes Oklahoma St in a ranked matchup in the BIG12. Watchout for the Longhorns as the figure out Sark’s offense.

After a disaster of a week picking, I found redemption. Once again, I hit Monday Night Football in the NFL, this time also hitting a player prop parlay. I went 5-0 last week, which means I also hit the Parlay and the Teaser. That makes for a happy check of the balance and brings me to 20-13 on the season. I start again with a Friday night game. I take Syracuse (+14) against Clemson. The Tigers have showed very little so far this season and the Orange seem to play everyone close. I’m going with three on the Over again, UCF @ Cincinnati (+57.5), Alabama @ Miss St (+57.5), and Arizona St @ Utah (+51). And I lay the points with Arkansas (-3.5) against Auburn. That line has moved since I got in and the Hogs are even larger faves.

Statements Made

The good favorites covered and covered hard this weekend. Six top 15 teams fell and Cincinnati handled the business in front of them. Officiating cost some teams again this weekend and until a national system replaces the conference system, we will continue to see subpar refs and head scratching replay decisions. Clemson is not a top 25 team and the ACC looks like a Group of 5 conference. Kentucky beat Florida in Lexington for the first time since the pre-Spurrier era. Mullin teams lose four games a year. My biggest takeaway is that Miss St should probably be undefeated right now. Let that sink in. And, while you were sleeping, Hawaii knocked off a ranked Fresno St team which makes my Nevada pick in the MWC look more realistic. And show some love to Oregon St for being first in the PAC 12 North.

It’s now time to start looking at who has separated themselves from the pack. The top two teams are easy and you can put them in whichever order you like. But the chaos starts at number three. My top five is Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma.

This week we get some incredible match ups. Red River at the Texas State Fair happens, and I think this is an absolute tossup. UGA and Auburn in an earlier than usual matchup. I see the Bulldogs big here. Arkansas and Ole Miss meet to see who is the number two team in the SEC West. But the marquee game is Penn St at Iowa. The under may be the play here, but Penn St needs the win more as the East is loaded and the West is not as deep. Iowa can lose and still make the title game with ease. LSU at UK should provide entertainment and let us know if the Wildcats can avoid the emotional rollercoaster. I think they can. Coach O may want to update his CV.

I took it on the chin last week. 1-5 counting the bonus pick takes me to 15-13. This is the worst I’ve been this late ever. But, it only takes one week to go one way or the other. Even the crew of Daily Wager took it on the chin last weekend. Although, I did hit Monday Night Football for the 2nd straight week. This week I have three Overs – South Carolina @ Tennessee (+53), Arkansas @ Ole Miss (+66), and Maryland @ Ohio St (+68.5). I took Kentucky (-3) when they host LSU and I’ll start off the weekend with the Friday game and go with Charlotte (-3.5) @ Florida International.

Upsets?

For those who listened to the preseason show, you know that I said that this is the year Clemson comes back to the pack. You can sign all the 5 Star players you want, but you still have to coach them up and give them a scheme that puts them in the right position to win. The Tiger D is fine, the O is truly offensive. Oklahoma surprisingly can’t move the ball on O either. But is it just a matter of time or is it a sign of things to come? Are we witnessing a changing of the guard on top teams and playoff contenders? Notre Dame struggled more than the score indicated and Fresno St had a hiccup post their UCLA upset. UNC is all but out of the running in the Coastal and Iowa St is now playing catch up as well. I will not even comment on the officiating in a certain SEC game.

Happy time for the Hogs! Arkansas is close to calling themselves the Texas state champs, except UTSA is not on their schedule. Visiting UGA, however is a dog of a different color. The question will be how healthy is JT Daniel and how the crowd will impact Arkansas. Ole Miss visits Alabama in what could be the track meet of the weekend. I’m staying away from action on the game, but I think the Rebels may stop the Tide. Cincinnati can start booking their playoff hotel rooms with a win of Notre Dame. Meanwhile, an inexplicably still ranked Clemson battles BC in the return match of a great game from last season. Even the Big 12 has a ranked match up when Baylor travels to Oklahoma St.

Last week I went 3-2. The hook got me again in one game, but I did hit my Teaser. 14-8 so far and looking for more. I have a bonus pick for Friday night for those looking for an early start, Maryland (+3.5) against Iowa. I’m going points heavy this week. I take Boston College (+15.5) against Clemson, Rutgers (+15) when they host Ohio St, and Arkansas (+18.5) at UGA. I lay the point with Missouri (-3) against Tennessee and go with the Under (50.5) when Northwestern travels to Nebraska. And of course, I grabbed a Parlay and a Teaser on these as well. I made no NFL bets for Sunday, but did have Dallas and covered on Monday night.

Good luck and happy betting.

Struggles

Lots of favorites played tighter than expected games. Which is the real Nebraska? The team that played Oklahoma deep into the game or the one that fumbled through the Illinois game? Better question: what is the real Oklahoma? My preseason pick to take it all has not looked elite. But, what team has? The best win of the season so far may be the Oregon win at Ohio St. Or is it the Alabama victory at the Swamp against a better than anticipated Florida? Clemson’s defense has yet to allow a TD, but their offense has not really scored many themselves. Better goal line execution would have seen GT take the Tigers out of national contention. Tulsa played Ohio St closer than the final score. So, should we approach this as moving closer to parity or that the “elite” teams are not as elite as advertise? The answer is that we have no idea who is truly separating themselves three weeks into the season. This is why polls should not exist before the first week of October.

This week has Notre Dame playing Wisconsin in Chicago. Both teams are unknown in my opinion. Short of one team dominating the other, I think they jury will still be out on them. Arkansas meets aTm in Dallas for their annual Jerry World game. This should be a game to watch. While those are the only rank on rank games, several ranked teams need to be wary of the upset. That leads right into the picks for the week.

Last week I went 4-1 and move to 11-6 on the season on Straight bets. Unfortunately, and combination of missed FGs and head scratching offense led to the Under in the Neb @ OK game. Winning the games was nice, hitting the Parlay would have been the icing. I feel less confident about the games coming up but have hope for success. I am going with the Over (+64) in the Battle for the Iron Skillet between SMU and TCU. I like the Under (-44.5) when Colorado St visits Iowa. I’m laying the points with Michigan St (-5) against Nebraska. I am taking the points with both Mississippi St (+2.5) when they host LSU and NC State (+10) when they welcome Clemson. I also took these with a Parlay and a Teaser.

I missed an NFL Parlay when KC fumbled, but otherwise had a good weekend.

Reality

So much to digest from Week 2. Texas is most certainly not back and perhaps regretting that move to the SEC a little. Ohio St was exposed as a good, not great team. But, the season is young for the Buckeyes and they are not out of it yet. USC finally makes the long overdue change and Saban gets to tell his team he was right all week in practice. The best thing about the weekend was the Miami fans saving the cat.

This week sees the first real competition for several teams as either conference play opens or squads step out of conference for big match ups. Auburn plays on the road at a Big 10 school for the first time as a member of the SEC. (last trip in 1931) Alabama at Florida highlights the SEC slate of games and I’m sure the Swamp will be wild. Nebraska goes to Oklahoma in what was once a great rivalry. Unfortunately, as you’ve heard me mention on the preseason shows, the Big 12 destroyed that rivalry in the 1990s.

I was able to watch from the couch as I lost by a hook again and came oh so close on my teaser as well. The Over hit by a point. I move to 7-5 on my Straight picks. I have yet to hit a Parlay or Teaser, but that just means I’m due (said every gambler ever). This week I am taking two Money Line plays. I have Penn St and UTSA beating Auburn and MTSU respectively. I also have two Over plays with Alabama @ Florida (+58) and Nebraska @ Oklahoma (+61.5). The last of the week is Michigan St (+6.5) at Miami. I surprisingly went with mostly marquee matchups this week. I also have a Teaser in play, but we shall see.

I am up for the season so far and the sportsbook just comped me an NFL jersey of my choice. Unfortunately, none of the throwbacks I wanted were available in my size, so I went with #71 Jedrick Wills Jr, LT Cleveland Browns. What action do you have this weekend and what jersey would you have selected?

Overreaction

It’s easy to overact with such a small sample size. One game cannot make a season, but it can sure break it. So, after week one let’s pump those brakes and patiently watch a little more football before we declare certainties that may or may not exist. Pac 12 North and ACC had horrendous starts to the season. Florida St showed a lot of heart against Notre Dame. And how great was the McKenzie Milton story?

My first trip to the Mercedes Benz Dome in Atlanta was a success. Great facility where it does not look like there’s a bad seat in the house. However, the bathrooms on the 200 level are a bit small. Alabama played a great first half of football before falling victim to scoreboard watching. We’ll see how that plays out over the year. It does not appear that Miami is going to let Bama beat them twice, but App St will be ready to play Saturday.

Thursday saw me lose to the hook. Minnesota gave Ohio St all it could handle, but once Ibrahim went down with injury the game changed. Texas surprised me against a very strong Louisiana team. I felt that game would be much closer. The Pirate made me sweat a bit, but Miss St and La Tech finally scored enough points to make me happy. UGA handled Clemson. I expected the outright win, but who says no to points? Funny thing is that all the analysts I heard talking about the game talked how great it was and such. There were no offensive touchdowns and 13 points scored. The LSU @ Bama game in 2011 also had no offensive touchdowns, but 15 points scored. Those same analysts talked about how boring that game was, yet both defenses were sideline to sideline with NFL players. Let’s see if that’s the case with UGA v Clemson. I think there is NFL talent for both on that side of the ball, it is nowhere near what we saw in 2011.

I’m sitting at 4-3 in straight picks on the season as I snuck in a bet on the Monday night game. I took Ole Miss and lay the 10 points. This week in college my straight bets are Arkansas +7 as they host Texas, Under in both Missouri at UK (56) and Iowa at Iowa St (46). I have Oregon +14.5 at Ohio St and Northern Illinois +6.5 as they host Wyoming. I grabbed a 5 Leg Teaser on these also. So I get an extra 6 points for each on the parlay for a lower payout. I also took a 4 Leg Parlay with each team on the money line: ND over Toledo, TCU over Cal, North Illinois over Wyoming, and Temple over Akron.

For the NFL this week I went with the Over (51.5) in the Dallas at Tampa game and Green Bay -4 at New Orleans (game played in Jacksonville). And a 6 Leg Parlay each game on the Money Line: Titans, Packers, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Bucs.

Here. We. Go.

Week 0 is in the books and I hit on my Illinois +7 action. Labor Day weekend brings us a bonanza of college football. I’ll be in Atlanta for the Alabama v Miami (Fla) game. To make myself feel old, the last time these two teams played, I was a student at Alabama. I’ll never forget Keith Jackson saying “Teague’s got the ball.”

I have my action for the week and am starting the first week at 1-0. Not playing every Top 25 and SEC this season. Instead, I will focus on the actual action and go into greater detail on the play. This week I picked five games and a 4 leg parlay. I have Louisiana (+9) at Texas. The Cajuns have 20 of 22 starters back from a very good team. Oklahoma (-26.5) will be the road team at home against Tulane. Hurricane Ida has relocated the game and I was taking OK either way. I like the Over (52.5) when La Tech plays at Miss St. I’ll be rowing the boat with Minnesota (+13.5) when they host Ohio St. Each of these games also are in my parlay. Lastly, I am taking UGA (+3) against Clemson despite the WR injuries for the Bulldogs.

For my futures action I made some plays that I don’t expect to pay off, but the favorites were so favored that these bets were worth the outside shot. Nevada +450 to win the MWC. UNC +900 to win the ACC. Wisconsin +900 to win the Big 10. Ohio +700 to win the MAC. Oklahoma +750 to win the CFP. I also have a parlay at +750 that has Alabama, Ohio St, Oklahoma, and Boise St each winning their respective conferences.

How the numbers work for betting: One can bet any dollar amount desired. Always stay within not only budget, but what you are willing to lose. However, the +/- system is based on a $100 bet. Therefore, +450 on a $100 bet would win $450 and pay $550. So, whatever dollar amount you place, adjust accordingly.

Week 13 – Clarity

The Mac Attack is here.

Last week 3-2 in Vegas 5, now 32-28 for the year. Another 10-10 week in Top 25/SEC for a season total of 140-117.

This week the Over (39.5) for Minnesota @ Northwestern, Baylor (-5.5) against Texas, the Over (61.5) for Western Carolina @ Alabama, Oregon State (+10.5) @ Washington St, and the Over (65) for TCU @ Oklahoma.