Monthly Archives: September 2018

Confusion Sets In

This is quickly becoming a tough year to figure out. While I wasn’t sold on Va Tech being a contender, they should’ve been able to handle Old Dominion. After watching the Big 10 West lay an egg, the ACC said, “hold my beer.”

Army proved that holding the ball for ¾ the game can put even a top 10 team like Oklahoma in jeopardy. Jimbo called 2 TOs in the last 15 seconds in the Bama blow out of aTm. Thanks for delaying my trip home through the never-ending construction zone that is Tuscaloosa. Who had Kentucky and Duke both being ranked at the same time in football? Liar. And what has gotten into North Texas? 4-0 for the first time since 1966.

This week will find me in my usual seat at Bryant-Denny while I watch the only team from the state of Louisiana that I’ve yet to see play in person. Two SEC games that are typically classics have mismatch written all over them this year. Arkansas v aTm and UT v UGA. I’m intrigued by the Syracuse visit to Clemson. The Tigers are a bad hit away from having no scholarship QB playing now that Kelly Bryant has decided to transfer. Ole Miss plays LSU a lot earlier than they should this season I promise this though, PAC12 after dark is the place to be this weekend. I expect to fall asleep on the couch watching entertaining, competitive games. Oh yeah, there’s apparently a good game in the B1G as Ohio St visits Penn St in White Out conditions.

Not only did I have a bad week in the Vegas 5 (2-3) and moved to 7-12-1 on the year, I also stunk up the joint in my Top 25/SEC picks going 11-14. That drops my season total to 62-42. It’s time to turn this around before I start having to bag groceries for casino money.

This week’s Vegas 5 starts with Indiana (-16.5) against what may be the worst team in FBS in Rutgers. Purdue (-3.5) continues its turnaround against struggling Nebraska. There will be some points scored and the Over (46.5) obtained in the Boise St @ Wyoming game. I also like the Over (60.5) in the FAU/MTSU game. And I’ll take Stanford (+3) against Notre Dame.

Who’d you pick?

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Mess in the West

Bad week for the Big 10, especially the West. Ohio St needed every defensive play they could get to slip past TCU on a “neutral” field and 7 teams lost to unranked non-conference opponents. To be the best conference depth is required.

What I learned from Week 3 is that little guys can still play, Kansas has its first win streak in a long time, and Ole Miss wishes they could’ve stopped after the first play. Streaks were snapped in Wisconsin and Lee County as The Badgers dropped to a BYU team that lost to Cal and LSU made another stellar comeback against Auburn in what has to be one of the better rival games recently. Oklahoma St won an important game for them over Boise St. Pump the breaks if your team dropped their first game this week, though. There’s a lot of football yet to play and we rarely have seen undefeated teams in the playoffs.

Week 4 finds aTm ranked and travelling to Tuscaloosa. I’ll be there in Section N-1 Row 38 Seat 2. We’ll learn much in that game. Friday night has an entertaining slate of games. FAU @ UCF, Penn St @ Illinois, and Washington St @ USC. I’m pulling for the road teams. The game I have the most interest in is UGA @ Mizzou. I think the Tigers can surprise and shake up the East. And Purdue might be the best 0-3 team in history. One wonders if they can upset Boston College. TCU @ Texas and Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St rate as exciting matchups that will go a long way to determine the Big 12. Stanford goes to Oregon with the winner providing Washington the best challenger in the Pac 12 North.

I found out why Texas was favored over USC. Steve Williams, as you may remember from the Pac 12 podcast, said USC would be bad. He might be correct. My Vegas 5 went 2-3 last week. I can’t seem to get over the hump yet and the season total sits at 5-9-1. Against the Spread in Top 25 and SEC, Florence played havoc with games and forced cancellations. I went 14-10 taking me to a season total of 51-28.

This week for the Vegas 5 I’ll start with the Over (51) for Louisville and Virginia. I’m going to give a ton of point and take Syracuse (-27.5) over UConn. I want the Over (48) for Michigan St v Indiana. Iowa (+3) over Wisconsin. Lastly, I’ll keep taking USF (-22) until they cover as they take on East Carolina.

Who ya got?

Streaking Into Week 3

Hopefully, Hurricane Florence won’t cause too much harm to the Carolinas. There are more important things than football.

Week 2 witnessed the end of some lengthy streaks. Kansas won on the road and Kentucky finally beat Florida. Other streaks continued. Arizona State remained perfect at home against Big 10 opponents and, of course, Bama beat an unranked opponent and stayed at #1 in the AP. Florida State snuck out with a win against Samford and Maine defeated Western Kentucky. Even in Week, the FCS caused havoc in paycheck games.

Week 3 brings us some marquee match ups and some sneaky good games that you’ll thank me for guilting you into watching. Rutgers visits Kansas. Can the Jayhawks start a winning streak? Miami visits Toledo. In an age of paycheck games, kudos to The U for playing smaller teams at their houses. Also, that game might be better than folks think. Vandy travels to Notre Dame. Let’s find out if the Dores O is legit. And don’t be surprised if Fresno State knocks off UCLA. Ohio St goes to TCU, LSU visits Auburn, and Boise St heads to Oklahoma St. All three games may go a long way into deciding the New Years 6 matchups.

Last week the Vegas 5 picks suffered from one of the greatest end zone picks I’ve ever seen. It cost me the game and I went 2-3 bringing the early season total to 3-6-1. Not the start I’d hoped for. Yet, in Top 25 and SEC matchups I went 22-6 bringing my season total up to 37-18. This week I like Missouri (-7.5) at Purdue. Not sure how USC (+3) is the dog against Texas, but I’ll take those points. I have USF (-10.5) over Illinois. I want Troy (+10.5) over Nebraska. And lastly the Over (64.5) in the Boise St/Oklahoma St game.

Who’d you take?

Reality Strikes!

Ouch! I guess we learned why they play the games last weekend.

My best advice is to pump the brakes and remember it’s early. Offenses will find identities and teams will gel. That being said, I was surprised that some teams that should have coasted struggled and some that should have put up a fight didn’t.

Oklahoma manhandled FAU. The mad genius left his offensive prowess in south Florida. The Washington/Auburn game was extremely competitive, but towards the end neither seemed to want to win it. Miami and FSU may play a 4-2 game later this season. The Huskies margin for error is nil moving forward.

The big losers (perception-wise) were the PAC 12 and Big 12. Stanford managed to pull away late and Oklahoma and WVU took care of business, but the initial returns show them behind in the court of public opinion. The SEC went 13-1 to open the weekend. SEC QBs only threw two picks all weekend. Both were by the Kentucky QB. Lost in the box score of the Bama/Louisville game was some subpar O Line play and mindboggling mental lapses from the Tide. Both have two weeks to improve before heading to Oxford for Tua’s first true road game. Let’s see if aTm can hang in there with Clemson. This is the perfect opportunity for the Aggies.

I was sadly 1-3-1 in my Vegas 5 last week and 15-12 Against the Spread (ATS) in Top 25/SEC play. Not the start I’d hoped for, but by watching games (and re-watching games) I’ve learned much about the reality of some of these squads. I’ll take South Carolina (+10) against Georgia. I think the Dawgs are legit, but this has close game written all over it. I like the Over (52.5) when Wyoming travels to Missouri. I think Kentucky (+14) is so far overdue against Florida that they at least find a way to stay within two TDs. Hawaii (-16.5) seems to be scoring at will this year and Rice has a long flight ahead of them. Lastly, I like Fresno St (+2.5) to upset Minnesota.

Who did you take?