Tag Archives: vegas odds

Streaking Into Week 3

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Hopefully, Hurricane Florence won’t cause too much harm to the Carolinas. There are more important things than football.

Week 2 witnessed the end of some lengthy streaks. Kansas won on the road and Kentucky finally beat Florida. Other streaks continued. Arizona State remained perfect at home against Big 10 opponents and, of course, Bama beat an unranked opponent and stayed at #1 in the AP. Florida State snuck out with a win against Samford and Maine defeated Western Kentucky. Even in Week, the FCS caused havoc in paycheck games.

Week 3 brings us some marquee match ups and some sneaky good games that you’ll thank me for guilting you into watching. Rutgers visits Kansas. Can the Jayhawks start a winning streak? Miami visits Toledo. In an age of paycheck games, kudos to The U for playing smaller teams at their houses. Also, that game might be better than folks think. Vandy travels to Notre Dame. Let’s find out if the Dores O is legit. And don’t be surprised if Fresno State knocks off UCLA. Ohio St goes to TCU, LSU visits Auburn, and Boise St heads to Oklahoma St. All three games may go a long way into deciding the New Years 6 matchups.

Last week the Vegas 5 picks suffered from one of the greatest end zone picks I’ve ever seen. It cost me the game and I went 2-3 bringing the early season total to 3-6-1. Not the start I’d hoped for. Yet, in Top 25 and SEC matchups I went 22-6 bringing my season total up to 37-18. This week I like Missouri (-7.5) at Purdue. Not sure how USC (+3) is the dog against Texas, but I’ll take those points. I have USF (-10.5) over Illinois. I want Troy (+10.5) over Nebraska. And lastly the Over (64.5) in the Boise St/Oklahoma St game.

Who’d you take?

Reality Strikes!

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Ouch! I guess we learned why they play the games last weekend.

My best advice is to pump the brakes and remember it’s early. Offenses will find identities and teams will gel. That being said, I was surprised that some teams that should have coasted struggled and some that should have put up a fight didn’t.

Oklahoma manhandled FAU. The mad genius left his offensive prowess in south Florida. The Washington/Auburn game was extremely competitive, but towards the end neither seemed to want to win it. Miami and FSU may play a 4-2 game later this season. The Huskies margin for error is nil moving forward.

The big losers (perception-wise) were the PAC 12 and Big 12. Stanford managed to pull away late and Oklahoma and WVU took care of business, but the initial returns show them behind in the court of public opinion. The SEC went 13-1 to open the weekend. SEC QBs only threw two picks all weekend. Both were by the Kentucky QB. Lost in the box score of the Bama/Louisville game was some subpar O Line play and mindboggling mental lapses from the Tide. Both have two weeks to improve before heading to Oxford for Tua’s first true road game. Let’s see if aTm can hang in there with Clemson. This is the perfect opportunity for the Aggies.

I was sadly 1-3-1 in my Vegas 5 last week and 15-12 Against the Spread (ATS) in Top 25/SEC play. Not the start I’d hoped for, but by watching games (and re-watching games) I’ve learned much about the reality of some of these squads. I’ll take South Carolina (+10) against Georgia. I think the Dawgs are legit, but this has close game written all over it. I like the Over (52.5) when Wyoming travels to Missouri. I think Kentucky (+14) is so far overdue against Florida that they at least find a way to stay within two TDs. Hawaii (-16.5) seems to be scoring at will this year and Rice has a long flight ahead of them. Lastly, I like Fresno St (+2.5) to upset Minnesota.

Who did you take?

Week 13 – Bragging Rights

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We’ve reached the end. This is the last week of the regular season and when the bulk of the instate rivalries are played. The helmets lined up across from one another this week exemplify everything there is about family gatherings and fellowship. Or maybe not.

The bitterness of the Egg Bowl kicks off the excitement. While Miss St should win, Ole Miss has been getting solid play at the QB position. Only the die hard fans will watch FSU play Florida. The Noles should have the edge, but who knows this year? A sneaky good match up will be Virginia and Virginia Tech. Louisville and Kentucky go at it again and I wonder if the Cats can slow down Lamar Jackson. The reigning Heisman winner is having an amazing season that very few seem to be paying attention to since the rest of the team is down. Indiana at Purdue could provide some sneaky fireworks as well with the game picked with just a FG difference. Battles in Tennessee, North Carolina and Nevada will be for pure bragging rights while Fresno St and Boise St will meet in back to back weeks. It’s next week that counts.

Now onto those crazy instate games that mean everything (and one border war). The Apple Cup decides the PAC12 North. Washington can play the spoiler and send Stanford to the game against USC. I’m putting Clemson on upset alert at South Carolina. Ohio State travels north to take on Michigan. While the B1G title game is set, this is a must win for the Buckeyes if they want to sneak into the playoffs in case of chaos. Same for Georgia going to Tech. They don’t need chaos, but they have to win. USF and UCF battle for the middle of Florida and the winner takes on Memphis for the chance to go to a New Years Six bowl. UCF just looks too strong. Alabama travels to the Plains to meet Auburn to decide the SEC West. It will be a classic.

I took a bath last week and went 1-4 in the Vegas 5. Thank you LSU for saving me. I go into the last week of the regular season at 34-24-2. Against The Spread in Top 25/SEC I sit at 157-112.

The Vegas 5 this week is very tricky. Rivalries and finales are tough to predict as this is the week that some guys play for the last time ever. I’ll take Pitt (+13.5) as they host Miami. The Canes play dangerously at times. South Carolina (+14) will keep close when Clemson visits. I want the Over (47.5) in the Apple Cup when Washington and Washington St tangle. I’m going Under (74.5) when Arizona meets Arizona St. That’s a lot of points in a rivalry game. And Oregon (-25) covers when they host Oregon St in the Civil War.

Who are you taking?

Week 12 – The Calm

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With only a handful of matchups between teams with winning records, welcome to the most boring weekend of the season. That doesn’t mean there aren’t good games, but nothing like  we’ve grown accustom to. As for me, I’ll be at Senior Day in Tuscaloosa. I love Senior Day.

Much was decided last week for divisional champions. Dreams were dashed, potential was realized, and Houdiniesque escapes were performed. A reminder that before you call your local sports radio guy to complain about rankings or schedule strength of whatever team you don’t like, the season will be viewed as a whole and divisions and conferences are not won by votes but by execution on the field of play. Once the complete picture is there, let the complaining over who the fourth best team in the country begin. As far as playoff expansion, that’s for fans whose teams can’t win the right games. If my favorite team falls short, then maybe we should’ve worked harder. Of course, I can come up with a dozen reasons to justify why Team A should be in over Team B, but the answer is simple and was said best by Al Davis. Just win, baby.

I’ve been enjoying the #MACtion during the week. Exciting and cold games on every night. USC and UCLA tangle for the Victory Bell and lately both have worn home uniforms. Michigan is much improved on offense and controls its destiny in the B1G East. I don’t think they get it done against Wisconsin this week, though. UAB is going bowling in their first year back and my Music City Bowl tickets have shipped (come on Michigan v Texas A&M).

Last week I should’ve been in Vegas as I went a perfect 5-0. I now sit at 33-20-2. Against The Spread for Top 25 and SEC I move to 145-98 on the season. I warn you though, my bowl records lately have been abysmal. I promise to foresee the outcomes better this year.

This week I’m taking UAB (+10.5) against Florida; moreover, I’m tempted to take them on the money line. LSU (-15.5) should cover against Tennessee. I like the Over (41) in Fresno St at Wyoming. South Alabama (-5) over Georgia Southern. What has happened to the Eagles? And, Syracuse (+13) against Louisville.

Who did you pick?

 

Week 10 – Winter is Coming

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The first College Football Playoff poll is out, and I can’t really argue with the rankings. The last week of October provided some exciting games that will help decide the regular season. Plus, we now have the joy that is #MACtion. Instead of focusing space in this blog to what has happened, I’d like to speak to the importance of what is about to happen.

This first weekend in November may be the biggest weekend of the season. Multiple division races will start to become solidified after Saturday. Virginia Tech @ Miami (Fla), Clemson @ NC St, LSU @ Alabama, Stanford @ Washington St, South Carolina @ Georgia, Arizona @ USC and a little game called Bedlam. There are no divisions in the BIG 12, but Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St will go a long way to determine who will go to the new championship game, even if it only opens up tie breaker scenarios. By the way, the Sooners usually win this game when it counts. It’s a whole weekend of ESPN College Gameday-worthy matchups.

While October serves as a month of separation, November is where the season is decided. In the next four weeks, the championship games of December will find their teams and hot seats explode. Some teams couldn’t wait and already made their firings, but the bulk comes now. Jobs will be saved and lost in the next few weeks.

I broke even on the week. 2-2-1 in my Vegas 5 brings me to 25-18-2. Against The Spread in Top 25 and SEC games I’m now 121-79.

This week I’m going with Syracuse (+5) @ Florida St. I was in shock watching the Seminoles last week. It looked like they’ve quit. Northwestern (Even) @ Nebraska has me picking the Wildcats. I think Coach Riley will retire at the end of the season and the Cornhuskers will be in the market for a new coach. Fresno St (-14.5) will bounce back against BYU. I’ll take Southern Miss (+6.5) @ Tennessee. I never thought I’d type that sentence. And I’ll go with the Over (41) in the Minnesota @ Michigan game. Michigan may have an adequate quarterback now.

Who’d you take?

Week 9 – The Bye

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I know it’s not a bye week for everyone, but it is for my team. I was there for the 100th edition of the Third Saturday in October and thoroughly enjoyed watching Alabama dismantle Tennessee.

Lots of pundits and sites are quick to remove teams from playoff contention after a single loss. A one loss Power 5 team that wins its championship game has a solid chance to go to the last four. I doubt two loss teams have much of a chance unless chaos ensues. I’m not ready to eliminate a conference or contender just yet, but USC, Auburn, LSU, Michigan, and all the Group of 5 are likely out. But, that doesn’t mean their seasons are over. Conference titles are still to be had and a ring is a ring.

Favorites held serve for the most part last week. The lack of upsets points to this weekend being a little trickier for those expected to win. A lot of ranked teams travel this weekend. Oklahoma St and Washington St go to West Virginia and Arizona respectively. I’m willing to put both on upset alert. In fact, their in-state counterparts, Oklahoma and Washington, have home games they had best bring their A game for (Texas Tech, UCLA). The Greatest Outdoor Cocktail Party is this week. I’ve been to the Gator Bowl and can attest to the party atmosphere for that particular geographical location. NC St @ Notre Dame and Penn St @ Ohio St will be classics. I like both home teams to win close games. The game I have the most interest in this week is Mississippi St at Texas A&M. This has the potential to be the game of the week and is completely under the radar.

I went 4-1 again last week in the Vegas 5. I now sit at 23-16-1. As for Top 25/SEC Against The Spread, I’m a healthy 111-68.

I’m going with Georgia Tech (+14) to make it a game against Clemson. Clemson should win with either QB, but even with the extra week the triple option is tough to defend. Troy (-25.5) is back on track while Georgia Southern has jumped theirs. I like the Over (64.5) in the Washington St at Arizona game. The Pirate will score and Big Man Tate will, too. Virginia (+3) at Pitt. The Cavaliers are unfazed by road games after winning on the smurf turf earlier this season. Lastly, Rutgers (+24) at Michigan. Michigan wins, but the Scarlet Knights are much improved.

Week 7: Homecoming

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Another bad week for my picks, but a crazy week in college football. I figured Iowa St would come within 28 points, but win the game? Texas A&M played Alabama very tough in the 2nd half and that may give them the motivation to close out the year strong. I think their trip to Florida will tell all. A missed extra point cost the Gators the game against LSU. While the Tigers can be pleased to put their season back together, that joy may be short-lived with Auburn coming to Baton Rouge. TCU and West Virginia gave us the only rank on rank matchup and it was a classic. I’d like to point out my pick for the PAC 12 North (Stanford) controls its destiny for the division still.

The coaching carousel has begun. Not only has the Oregon St job become available, but after the Ole Miss/Auburn game was finished, the University of Mississippi posted a job opening for head football coach. Who’s next and how soon? Continuity in a program is important and the quick trigger to force change rarely works the way the fan bases want. But, these guys are paid well to win games.

Speaking of struggling, somebody went 1-4 last week in their Vegas 5. Record is now 15-14-1. But I’m 82-55 Against The Spread in Top 25 and SEC games.

This week’s Vegas 5 has me going with Texas (+7.5) against Oklahoma. I’ll stick with the Steve Williams special and go Purdue (+16.5) against Wisconsin. Texas A&M (+3) against Florida. I want the Over (58) in the Ohio St @ Nebraska game. And lastly, Memphis (-3.5) over Navy.

Who’d ya pick?

Week 5 and the End of September

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Sometimes in football you have one of those weeks. I imagine the House did very well in Week 4, no one I know did well at all. No podcast again this week, but there will be one next week to wrap up the first month.

Perhaps the funniest thing from the weekend was the Oklahoma St OL getting a sack on his own QB. I wager he had a rough film session on Monday. I wasn’t overly surprised by many of the outcomes, just how close they were (or were not). That said, I watched a portion of the NC St/FSU game. While FSU still has OL woes, the officiating in that game was wildly inconsistent and that piled on the rust factor for FSU. I picked TCU to keep it close, but wow they looked good. My preseason pick of them playing in the Big 12 game looks pretty good right now.

So, you want Bama? Asking for a friend.

I was mistaken on my year last week. UK, Vandy, and Miss St were all 3-0 in 1911. Now, of course they are all 3-1. UK had an epic meltdown and they may want to switch to the SEC West now.

I moved to 11-8-1 for the year with my Vegas 5 and took an absolute beating Against The Spread with Top 25 and SEC games. I went 11-13 to move to 61-35 on the year.

This week the Vegas 5 starts with Iowa (+3.5) against Michigan St. Do they watch the games in the desert? Fresno St (-10) against a suspect Nevada team. SMU (-17) will be all over UConn. UGA is for real, I’ll take Georgia (-7.5) over Tennessee. And lastly, Cal (+13.5) at Oregon.

Who do you have?